Prison population projections

More Minnesotans are expected to live behind bars in the next decade, but the rate of the population increase is expected to slow.

Speaking before the House Public Safety Policy and Oversight Committee Jan. 13, Grant Duwe said the projected offender increase is expected to be 2,064 prisoners between July 1, 2008, and July 1, 2018. Duwe, the Corrections Department research and evaluation manager, said the prisoner increase in the previous eight years was 2,948.

That would put the state’s prison population at 11,288 on July 1, 2018, compared to 9,224 on July 1, 2008. Eight years earlier the number was 6,276.

“This is based on current trends, laws and practices,” he said. “Annual forecasts over the past three years have been very accurate as the average monthly error rate has been 0.4 percent.”

He said part of the rapid increase earlier this decade, and slower projected growth is related to methamphetamine convictions, which are on the decline.

There were less than “a few hundred” meth offenders in state prison at the start of this decade, he said. In 2006, there were 1,138 prisoners, but about 200 less since then.

Drug offenders are expected to account for much of the short-term growth, but about one-third of the long-term growth. Sex and other person offenders are expected to account for almost half of the growth in the next decade.

Rep. Paul Kohls (R-Victoria) wondered if there is enough room to house more prisoners.

“We do not anticipate bonding for additional male beds until the bonding session of 2014, and we do not anticipate bonding for additional female beds until well past the end of this chart,” said David Crist, assistant commissioner for the department’s Facility Services Division. The chart went until 2018.