The 2015 legislative session recently got underway Set out below, in no particular order, are some of my predictions for what to expect in the upcoming session.
1. Bipartisanship. I'm not kidding. Watch for over 90% of the issues before us to pass with bipartisan support in 2015. Sure, there will be partisan flare-ups. After all, there are fundamental disagreements between Democratic and Republican legislators on certain issues. But there are more things that bring us together than separate us.
2. College tuition freeze. Though the U of M and the rest of the state's public colleges and universities say it would cost an additional $199 million to extend the current two-year tuition freeze for another two years, I think it will happen... and at a lower cost than $199 million.
3. Fixing roads and bridges. Some, not all, of the significant need for additional transportation funding will be addressed, particularly for repair and replacement of old roads and bridges across the state.
4. Met Council will take a pounding. There is darn near a revolution taking place in the collar counties of Dakota, Washington, Carver, Scott and Anoka against the Metropolitan Council, which is the regional planning board for infrastructure like transportation and park space. I have never seen it like this. The collar counties believe WAY too much funding is being directed to urban counties, especially Hennepin County, at the expense of the collar counties, and they have a point. Expect efforts to make the Met Council an elected body.
5. Child care tax credit for middle-income families. Minnesota has a child care tax credit that currently helps about 37,000 low-income, working families afford child care. I expect this credit will be expanded in 2015, making it available to more middle-income families.
6. E-12 funding increase. With a state budget forecast showing a $1.02 billion surplus, expect some of it to go toward additional school funding, with a higher percentage targeted to suburban and rural districts.
7. Nursing home & caregiver funding increase. These folks are severely underpaid for the sort of work they do, making it nearly impossible to hire and retain qualified staff to care for Minnesota's elderly and disabled. While it may not be a 5% increase like last year, I expect we will see some sort of increase.
8. Property tax caps. I wouldn't be surprised to see an effort to cap the amount that local governments can raise property taxes. In spite of receiving additional state aid the last two years, many cities raised property taxes on local homeowners anyway. This left a bitter taste in the mouth of some legislators who expected to see property tax reductions.
9. Income tax cut. Although one of the key issues the GOP focused on during the election season was the 2% income tax increase on Minnesota's top 2% of earners that brings $2 billion in additional taxes, the Republicans now in charge of the MN House have been silent on the issue of tax cuts for the top 2% since Election Day. This tells me they won't seek to undo that tax increase. But I would be shocked if we don't see some effort for an across-the-board income tax cut, especially since budget forecasters are anticipating a $1.02 billion surplus by the end of Fiscal Year 2016.
10. Sex offender relocation. A federal judge has given the State an ultimatum: Reform the State's sex offender treatment program, or the judge could do it himself. The Minnesota Sex Offender Treatment Program has been criticized for almost never releasing any offenders, even after the offenders have gone through treatment. I suspect the legislature will define some options that involve relocating some low-level offenders, but not enough to fully satisfy the federal judge, who will eventually issue his own order to relocate and/or release offenders.
I would welcome input on any or all of the above issues. Like I said, these are merely predictions based on what I am currently seeing. Nothing is cast in stone at this point. I can be reached at the Capitol at (651) 296-4192 or via email at Rep.Joe.Atkins@house.mn.